By Andy Fixmer
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- ABC isn’t likely to attract a big increase in viewers for the Feb. 22 Oscars telecast, according to analyst Steve Mason, who says the film academy’s snub of box- office leader “The Dark Knight” will cost the show.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences’ Oscars program draws a larger audience when box- office leaders vie for best picture. “No Country for Old Men,” released in 2007, took in $74 million and headlined the least- watched Oscars ever last year, according to Nielsen Co. data.
The show, broadcast on Walt Disney Co.’s ABC since 1975, attracted its largest audience when all-time box-office leader “Titanic” was voted best picture for 1997, according to Mason, who writes about the film industry for BigHollywood.com. Viewership jumped 38 percent to 55.2 million. When “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” won for 2003, the Oscars had 43.5 million viewers, up about one-third from the previous year.
“There has become a real disconnect between what is popular and mainstream, and what is viewed as an Oscar-caliber film,” Mason said in an interview.
The $532.9 million collected by “Dark Knight” at U.S. and Canadian theaters, second only to “Titanic,” is almost double all of the 2008 best-picture nominees combined, according to Burbank, California-based researcher Box Office Mojo LLC.
The nominees are “Frost/Nixon,” from General Electric Co.’s Universal Pictures; “Milk,” from GE’s Focus Features; “Slumdog Millionaire,” from News Corp.’s Fox Searchlight; “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” from Viacom Inc.’s Paramount Pictures; and Weinstein Co.’s “The Reader.” As of Feb. 16 they had collected $273.3 million in U.S. ticket sales, according to Box Office Mojo.
‘Crash,’ Springsteen
The disconnect between nominations and box-office success started with 2005’s “Crash,” Mason said. The film had the lowest sales of any best picture since 1993, he said.
Best-picture contenders for 2007 cumulatively collected box- office sales of $357.9 million.
The Academy also missed a chance to boost TV viewing by failing to nominate Clint Eastwood as best actor for “Gran Torino,” and by not giving nods for best songs to popular musicians including Bruce Springsteen (“The Wrestler”), Miley Cyrus (“Bolt”) and Alicia Keys (“Quantum of Solace”), Mason said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Andy Fixmer in Los Angeles at afixmer@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 18, 2009 00:01 EST
